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Roadmap To 2012 F1 Title – What Alonso And Vettel Need To Happen To Win

by on November 20, 2012

It all seems like a foreg0ne conclusion that Sebastian Vettel will notch his third world title.  However, some made similar claims about Alonso when he lead by 40 points and showed no signs of slowing down.

So here we are, after arguably one of the most exciting F1 seasons in a long time we head to the final round with all to play for.  The prospects for Alonso are bleak.  In his usually defiant manor, the Spaniard collected enough points (in the US GP) to cling on to a shred of hope.   His F2012 is still not quick enough to battle for the lead.  The Ferrari is the third quickest car on any given GP weekend in race pace, if every condition is perfect.

The Circuit Of The Americas in Austin Texas played host to a pivotal round of the Formula One championship.  A champion was not crowned however, which means that the Interlagos circuit in Brazil will be an “All or Nothing” final bout.

Mathematically speaking, the following scenarios must play out in order for either contender to be crowned World Driver’s Champion for the third time;

  1. If Alonso wins and Vettel finishes no higher than fifth, Alonso Wins
  2. If Vettel finishes fourth or better, irrespective of where Alonso finishes, Vettel Wins
  3. If  Vettel finishes fifth or worse AND if Alonso second or worse, Vettel Wins
  4. If Alonso finishes second and Vettel finishes eighth or worse, Alonso Wins
  5. If Alonso fails to podium and Vettel finishes tenth or worse, Vettel Wins
  6. If Vettel finishes tenth or worse and Alonso finishes third or better, Alonso Wins

If I’ve made an error or if I am missing a scenario, please feel free to comment, and I will added it immediately.

While Red Bull hardly have to be concerned with lack of pace as in Ferrari’s case, they do have to worry about reliability.  As we witnessed in Austin, Webber failed to finish the race due to yet another alternator failure.

Would it have occurred on Vettel’s RB8, we might all be singing a different tune.  Alonso could arguably have been leading going into the final round instead of trailing by 13.

Should it still occur on Vettel’s RB8 in Brazil, Alonso could still be crowned champion.  While both drivers would be deserving of the title, It is my honest opinion that Alonso might just deserve it a little more.

One thing is certain, no one deserves the Constructors title more than Red Bull except perhaps Newey alone.

Author: Ernie Black
Twitter: @TheF1Poet


From → Formula One

One Comment
  1. Red Bull definitely deserved the Constructors. They have simply outdone themselves. But fingers tightly crossed for Alonso. He has been formidable in a (pardon my language) crappy car. I am no Ferrari fan… but I really, really, really do not want to see The Finger win the title!!! Really, really, really…
    Great post though. I suck at math, and this explains it beautifully. Thank you!!

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